WILLAg Radio Week 39 in Review

The following is a summary of the WILLAg.org content from the work week ending September 25, 2026. WILLAg.org is a partnership of Illinois Public Media and University of Illinois Extension. Its mission is to distribute regionally, nationally, and internationally information and analysis of commodity markets and agricultural weather.

Agricultural Markets Synthesis

Commodity markets throughout the week navigated harvest progression, macroeconomic headwinds, and shifting expectations surrounding U.S.–China trade relations. On Monday, Ben Brown (University of Missouri Extension/FAPRI) reported that early-week rallies in corn and soybeans were supported by rising energy prices and optimism regarding an upcoming meeting between President Trump and President Xi Jinping. Brown noted that while domestic producers face elevated fuel and fertilizer costs entering the 2027 pre-purchase window, the U.S. remains insulated relative to global competitors, which could restrict international feed grain production and eventually lower CONAB’s optimistic Brazilian output projections. By Tuesday, Naomi Blohm (Total Farm Marketing) observed “turnaround Tuesday” price action as grain contracts drifted lower toward technical resistance. Blohm emphasized that market participants were awaiting specific volumetric commitments rather than vague dollar amounts from the bilateral summit, while producers managed harvest logistics at roughly 15% completion against commercial storage, interest, drying, and opportunity costs.

Midweek trading remained sideways, as Greg Johnson (TGM Total Grain Marketing) highlighted that cash corn harvest activity was restrained by farmers waiting for grain to dry down naturally to avoid steep artificial drying costs. Johnson detailed that local basis had yet to see its typical five-week seasonal break due to harvest delays, though Gulf basis for corn was beginning to soften. During Friday’s *Commodity Week* panel, market analysts assessed the lack of immediate agricultural announcements following the Trump-Xi summit. Arlan Suderman (StoneX) expressed confidence that China would honor its commitment to purchase 25 million metric tons of soybeans, pegging his national corn yield model at 181.1 bushels per acre and warning that resolving geopolitical shipping bottlenecks in the Black Sea and Middle East would take considerable time. Dave Chatterton (Strategic Farm Marketing) addressed distillate market volatility, advising growers to evaluate inverted diesel curves for spring fuel needs and to take note of Farm Bill ARC/PLC deadlines and fall crop insurance options. Ted Seifried (Zaner Ag Hedge) previewed the September 30 USDA Grain Stocks report, projecting old-crop ending stocks at 1.890 billion bushels for corn and 333 million bushels for soybeans, while suggesting producers consider synthetic puts to protect cash sales against harvest pressure without forfeiting upside potential. Wrapping up the week on the *Closing Market Report*, Mike Zuzolo (Global Commodity Analytics and Consulting) pointed to newly emerging supply-side risks stemming from rain-damaged crops across the western Corn Belt. Zuzolo cautioned that macroeconomic pressures—including rising bond yields, a stronger dollar, and elevated diesel prices—continue to serve as demand headwinds, underscoring the urgency for concrete export details for corn, wheat, and beef.

Agricultural Weather Synthesis

Midwest harvest operations and global planting conditions were steered throughout the week by persistent storm tracks, unseasonal monsoonal moisture, and a developing Super El Niño. Mark Russo (EverStream Analytics) opened the week tracking an active subtropical moisture plume that delivered beneficial rainfall to parched hard red winter wheat ground across the central and southern Plains. Russo noted that prolonged monsoonal flow from the desert Southwest was keeping Iowa and parts of the northern Corn Belt unseasonably wet, while an unusually quiet Atlantic hurricane season helped avert widespread logistics disruptions on the lower Mississippi River, aided by localized river stage rebounds. By Tuesday, Don Day (DayWeather) outlined a sharp west-to-east divide across the Corn Belt, contrasting cool, dry conditions across Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio with two to four inches of heavy rainfall tracking across the western plains, Nebraska, Kansas, and western Iowa.

Midweek reports reinforced this moisture pattern across North America and key international growing zones. Drew Lerner (World Weather Inc.) noted that cooling atmospheric conditions in the Plains would conserve topsoil moisture and accelerate winter wheat establishment, while also forecasting an eventual breakdown of the high-pressure blocking pattern over western Europe. Lerner warned that Queensland and northern New South Wales in Australia faced intensified heat and two weeks of dryness typical of El Niño, threatening sorghum and cotton production, whereas southern Brazil was benefiting from timely early planting moisture despite potential spring flooding risks. On Thursday, Mike Tannura (Tstorm Weather) confirmed that roughly 13% of U.S. corn production had experienced more than triple its normal 15-day rainfall, predicting significant harvest delays in Iowa and the western Corn Belt from upcoming rain systems. Tannura also emphasized that strong El Niño events historically correlate with exceptional U.S. hard red winter wheat yields and noted favorable early planting rains in Brazil and Argentina. Closing out the week, Eric Snodgrass (Nutrien Ag Solutions/Agrible) cautioned that harvest delays across the central and western Corn Belt would worsen as the remnants of East Pacific Category 5 Hurricane Polo tracked northeastward across the plains and Midwest. Snodgrass indicated that while a temporary drying window may emerge between October 2 and October 10, the historically strong El Niño pattern will likely restrict fieldwork windows through late October and could introduce erratic rainfall patterns during South America’s critical planting window.

The Week’s News and Other Items

Average Illinois Cash Rents and Soil Productivity in 2026: This report provides an update on the relationship between Illinois cash rents, soil productivity indexes (PIs), and regional agricultural districts (ADs), noting that the state’s average cash rental rate fell to $261 per acre in 2026. By utilizing USDA-NASS survey data and Bulletin 811 optimum productivity ratings, the article outlines a simple linear regression formula that farmers and landowners can use to estimate fair average cash rents for specific parcels. This formula (listed in the article) allows individuals to calculate appropriate rental rates based on the distinct soil quality and geographic location of the farmland within the state.

Trade Policy, Energy, and Supply Chain Regulation: During an excerpt from a National Association of Farm Broadcasting panel, industry leaders evaluated U.S.–China negotiations and market interventions. Geoff Cooper (Renewable Fuels Association) called for ethanol and distillers grains to be integrated into bilateral trade discussions to ease fuel prices and urban emissions in China, while warning that proposed bans on U.S. diesel exports or Defense Production Act mandates would cause refiners to reduce crude runs, ultimately constricting gasoline and diesel supplies. Ethan Lane (National Cattlemen’s Beef Association) and Rob Brenneman (National Pork Producers Council) voiced strong opposition to market intervention, arguing that populist measures, export bans, and rumors disrupt commodity markets and distort critical free-market supply signals. Cooper added that external economic evaluations from the Peterson Institute reflected an increase in state intervention within U.S. markets.

Global Agribusiness Management Curriculum: Agricultural economist Gary Schnitkey discussed topics from his University of Illinois course, ACE 435: Global Agribusiness Management. Schnitkey contrasted the dietary transition toward animal protein and feed imports in developing nations like China with the consumer-driven demand for non-commodity food attributes—such as non-GMO, organic, and sustainability certifications—in wealthy Western nations. He noted that market segregation adds significant verification costs, particularly when final products cannot be physically tested for production methods, while also reviewing challenges surrounding geographic origin labels such as “Raised in the USA”.

Fall and Spring Nitrogen Fertilizer Management: University of Illinois soil fertility specialist John Jones detailed nutrient management guidelines for producers planning anhydrous ammonia applications. Jones advised growers in the northern two-thirds of Illinois to delay fall applications until 4-inch soil temperatures are at or below 50°F and trending cooler, while using nitrification inhibitors as a supplemental risk management buffer rather than a substitute for proper soil temperatures. He explained that spring-applied anhydrous typically reduces the optimum economic application rate by 16 to 20 pounds of nitrogen per acre compared to fall applications without sacrificing corn yields. Jones also directed growers to the Maximum Return to Nitrogen (MRTN) calculator, noting that trial data demonstrates prioritizing economic return over maximum gross yield results in an average yield reduction of only 1.3 bushels per acre while lowering input requirements by 14 to 20 pounds of nitrogen per acre.

Foreign Ownership of U.S. Agricultural Land: This article posted to farmdoc Daily explores foreign investments in U.S. agricultural land utilizing data from the Agricultural Foreign Investment Disclosure Act (AFIDA), which indicates that foreign interests own 0.67% (less than 1%) of agricultural land in the United States. The AFIDA dataset provides a comprehensive and factual baseline for understanding the true nature, distribution, and use of these foreign agricultural investments.

Station Operations and Fall Fund Drive: Throughout the week’s broadcasts, Illinois Public Media conducted its annual fall fund drive across the Closing Market Report and Commodity Week. Host Todd Gleason solicited financial pledges from rural and agricultural listeners to support public agricultural radio, citing an overall campaign target of $75,000. You may still make a donation “in support of agriculture” to willgive.org.

That is a comprehensive look at the markets, the weather, and the news driving agriculture this week. You can find all of these segments, plus daily market updates from our farmdoc team, online anytime on demand at WILLAg.org.

Editor’s note: This article was adapted from the week’s WILLAg.org radio broadcast transcripts, formatted for print with the assistance of Google’s generative AI tool, Gemini, and reviewed by Todd Gleason.

—

WILLAg.org Calendar

September
30 – University of Illinois Homecoming

October
06 – PCM Webinar | 2026 PCM Fall Webinar Series Continues
26-29 – 1st International Miscanthus Summit
28 – Celebrating 150 Years of the Morrow Plots

December
01 – PCM Webinar | 2026 PCM Fall Webinar Series Continues
03 – Illinois NLRS Partnership Conference
14 – Illinois Farm Economic Summit, Mt. Vernon
15 – Illinois Farm Economic Summit, Sherman
16 – Illinois Farm Economic Summit, Peoriaf
17 – Illinois Farm Economic Summit, DeKalb

January
19 – Illinois Fertilizer and Chemical Association Winter Convention

—

Commodity Week can be heard in the 2 o’clock hour central time on WILL AM580 or you may subscribe to it using the links in the player below. This week the panelists include Arlan Suderman of StoneX, Dave Chatterton with Strategic Farm Marketing, and Ted Seifried from Zaner Ag Hedge.

The Closing Market Report airs at 2:06 p.m. central daily on WILL AM580. It, too, is a podcast. Subscribe using the link in the player.