WILLAg Radio Week 45 in Review

The following is a summary of the WILLAg.org content from the work week ending November 6, 2026.

WILLAg.org is a partnership of Illinois Public Media and University of Illinois Extension. Its mission is to distribute regionally, nationally, and internationally information and analysis of agricultural markets, research, and weather.

Agricultural Markets Synthesis

Midwestern producers approached the finish line of the fall harvest, and domestic grain markets contended with heavy fund liquidation, expanding balance sheets, and post-election macroeconomic shifts. While soybeans maintained comparatively stronger underlying support through domestic processing demand, corn and wheat struggled to identify a reason for near-term recovery. Throughout the week, market participants positioned ahead of the November 10 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) and Crop Production reports. Private estimates added downward pressure to prices, notably from Mike Castle (StoneX), who reported customer survey projections lifting national corn yields to 183.1 bushels per acre and soybean yields to 55.0 bushels per acre. Castle attributed these upward revisions to standout yields across the northern Plains, northern Iowa, and southern Minnesota offsetting localized drag in Illinois, Missouri, and Kansas.

On Monday’s broadcast, Ed Usset (University of Minnesota) emphasized that a precipitous two-month price collapse had brought cash corn back to August lows, down roughly 15% to 16% from early September peaks. He noted spring wheat hit life-of-contract lows. Usset remarked that historical analogs following severe harvest sell-offs point to modest post-harvest bounces rather than substantial rallies. However, strong crush volume and Chinese import commitments continue to anchor soybean demand, a sentiment reinforced by a rare greenfield ethanol plant announcement in North Dakota signaling long-term structural processing demand. Geopolitical events amplified price swings, as reports indicating diplomatic delays in U.S. strikes on Iran drove West Texas Intermediate crude down sharply, pulling soybean oil and whole beans lower.

Midweek market assessments shifted toward trade signals and balance sheet mechanics. Naomi Blohm (Total Farm Marketing) highlighted back-to-back flash corn export sales to Mexico exceeding 2 million metric tons. Citing historical data where six of eight similar mega-sales occurred near market bottoms, Blohm argued the purchases reflected deep value buying and potential hedging against El Niño crop disruptions in South America. She viewed oversold Relative Strength Index (RSI) levels across grains as evidence of a technical base forming. Conversely, Greg Johnson (TGM Total Grain Marketing) warned on Wednesday that soybeans faced asymmetric downside risk. While corn funds had largely squared their net positions, soybean funds retained exposure vulnerable to rapid liquidation. Johnson noted that if USDA aligns with private estimates and adds a bushel to national bean yields, ending stocks would balloon toward 400 million bushels without immediate demand offsets.

Thursday’s analysis further detailed the crop size and technical breakdown. Kaden Sweeney (AgMarket) observed that local harvest yields south of Route 16 in east-central Illinois ran roughly five bushels below the previous year for corn but five bushels higher for soybeans. He cautioned that soybean prices had carried an excessive El Niño weather premium that had eroded substantially. Sweeney pointed to the January soybean contract breaching its 200-day moving average, identifying summer support at $11.40 and secondary risk down to $10.90 if Brazilian crops stay favorable. On the weekly Commodity Week panel, Brian Splitt (AgMarket), Dave Chatterton (Strategic Farm Marketing), and Ellen Dearden (AgReview) addressed harvest marketing execution, chart breakdowns, and trade diplomacy. Splitt confirmed that the January bean contract recorded its first settlement below the 200-day moving average since January, triggering technical stops and fund selling toward the $11.40 summer lows. Chatterton cautioned that an incremental bushel increase in corn yield paired with a lagging export pace could inflate carryout to between 2.4 and 2.45 billion bushels, capping price expectations to a $4.25–$4.50 range. Dearden stressed that with futures deteriorating, producers must rely on basis improvements—particularly at processing plants and river terminals—recommending hedge-to-arrive contracts to capture basis gains. The panel also evaluated trade signals: while China maintains interest in agricultural commodities, reports indicated Beijing is tying purchases to tariff relief. Furthermore, Chatterton and Dearden advised evaluating the December 11 Agriculture Risk Coverage and Price Loss Coverage (ARC/PLC) deadline, noting that producers with significant yield deficits should run calculations on ARC Individual Coverage (ARC-IC) to potentially capture substantial payouts over ARC-County.

Concluding the week, Mike Zuzolo (Global Commodity Analytics and Consulting) evaluated the macroeconomic backdrop following the U.S. midterm elections. A surging U.S. Dollar Index, propelled by safe-haven flows and a strong jobs report, created headwinds for export competitiveness. Zuzolo highlighted contrasting international fundamentals, noting that USDA attache reports cut Ukrainian corn export projections by more than 50% due to Black Sea transit hurdles, spurring international tenders from buyers like Turkey. In contrast, Chinese soybean import projections were reduced due to domestic hog sector contraction. Zuzolo framed corn and wheat as undervalued assets awaiting supply-chain catalysts, while warning that soybeans remain exposed to global weather developments and energy market retreats.

Agricultural Weather Synthesis

Agricultural weather discussions centered on the dominant influence of a record-strength El Niño event expected to drive patterns through the spring. Early in the week, Mark Russo (EverStream Analytics) noted that scattered Midwest rains would temporarily delay harvest operations and keep soil temperatures too warm for widespread fall anhydrous ammonia applications. Don Day (Day Weather) and Drew Lerner (World Weather Inc.) confirmed a subsequent transition to a quiet, split-flow jet stream pattern that would flood the U.S. with mild maritime air, facilitating a dry 7-to-10-day window for harvest wrap-up but prolonging suboptimal fertilizer application conditions and exacerbating subsoil dryness in the Great Plains and Delta regions. Eric Snodgrass (Nutrien Ag Solutions) highlighted that the Midwest’s first seasonal frost arrived roughly three weeks later than the historical average, reflecting a longer-term regional climate trend extending the fall growing season. Long-range models detailed by Snodgrass and Mike Tannura (T-Storm Weather) projected unseasonably mild winter conditions across the northern U.S., while an active southern storm track could significantly recharge soil moisture and reduce the national drought footprint by spring. Internationally, abundant El Niño-driven rains supported exceptional early crop health and rapid planting in Argentina and southern Brazil, though forecasters warned that the weather phenomenon could still trigger monsoonal disruptions and dryness in central Brazil as the crop advances into its critical reproductive phases.

The Week’s News and Other Items

ARC / PLC decision for the crop just harvested due December 11: With the farm safety net enrollment deadline delayed until December 11, corn, soybean, and wheat producers across the country must soon finalize their Agriculture Risk Coverage (ARC) or Price Loss Coverage (PLC) decisions for the 2026 crop year. The University of Illinois farmdoc team currently projects that ARC-County will be the most advantageous option for the vast majority of corn and soybean acres in Illinois, though winter wheat decisions remain more subjective. Producers are encouraged to review the October farmdoc webinar, download the presentation slides, and utilize the available online tools to thoroughly evaluate their specific farm data before making final binding elections with the Farm Service Agency. The University of Illinois ag economists are awaiting next Tuesday’s USDA reports before detailing final 2026 ARC/PLC decisions in a webinar on November 17: register here.

Grower Survey on Precision Weed Control Technologies: In response to the escalating challenge of multiple-herbicide-resistant weeds like waterhemp, weed scientists at the University of Nebraska and the University of Illinois have launched a regional survey to assess producer readiness for advanced, high-tech weed management tools. University of Illinois Extension Weed Scientist Aaron Hager explained that the survey seeks to accurately measure farmer awareness and evaluate the economic barriers associated with adopting technologies such as optical sensor spot-sprayers and targeted weed electrocution systems. By gathering direct feedback from growers and commercial applicators at go.illinois.edu/weedcontrol, researchers aim to identify current knowledge gaps and directly align future autonomous technological developments with the practical, everyday needs of modern farming operations.

Strip Till Transition, a farmer conversation: Champaign County farmer Adam Wattson shared his operational experiences and primary financial motivations for transitioning his farm to a strip-till production system. Driven by a desire to reduce heavy equipment costs, Wattson eliminated his chisel plow and field cultivator, relying instead on a strip-till bar in the fall to prepare targeted seedbeds that warm up faster for earlier planting in the spring. This operational shift eliminated his spring tillage tractor passes entirely and allowed him to adapt his nutrient management to a liquid-only nitrogen system featuring split applications, ultimately reducing his overall fertilizer rates by 30% and nitrogen rates by 10% without sacrificing historical cash crop yields.

Tulips and Pumpkins, a story for the fall: This segment highlighted two specialized agricultural sectors, beginning with the 75th anniversary of the USDA Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) international pre-clearance program. USDA APHIS representative Matt Rhoads explained that inspecting imports like Dutch flower bulbs in their country of origin mitigates pest risks, accelerates port processing, and reduces overall supply chain handling costs. Transitioning to domestic production, University of Illinois Extension specialist Mohammad Babadoost discussed Illinois’s staggering dominance in the processing pumpkin industry. Following a swift recovery from a devastating 1998 phytophthora blight outbreak, Illinois now dedicates over 16,000 acres to the crop—primarily around Peoria—and supplies 85% to 90% of the nation’s canned pumpkin pie filling through large-scale processing facilities in Morton and Princeville.

That is a comprehensive look at the markets, the weather, and the news driving agriculture this week. You can find all of these segments, plus daily market updates from our farmdoc team, online anytime on demand at WILLAg.org.

Editor’s note: This article was adapted from the week’s WILLAg.org radio broadcast transcripts, formatted for print with the assistance of Google’s generative AI tool, Gemini, and reviewed by Todd Gleason.

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2026 Illinois Farm Economics Summit
Challenging Environment, Tight Margins
https://farmdoc.illinois.edu/ifes

This year’s series of IFES meetings will update attendees on the current state of the Midwest farm economy and discuss the challenges and opportunities currently facing farmers. Despite improved pricing prospects, producers continue to operate in a challenging environment of tight margins. Production costs have continued to rise and remain subject to significant uncertainty and volatility due to ongoing geopolitical developments. At the same time, changes to biofuels and 45z tax policy may create market opportunities for grains and oilseeds produced in ways that allow biofuel producers to qualify for low-carbon fuel tax credits.

Click here for more information and to register for the four mid-December meetings. IFES is scheduled for the week of December 14 in Mt. Vernon, Sherman, Peoria, and DeKalb.

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WILLAg.org Calendar

November
10 – WASDE and Crop Production Report
13 – Conab Brazil Release
17 – farmdoc Webinar | Final Look at the 2026 ARC/PLC Decision

December
01 – PCM Webinar | 2026 PCM Fall Webinar Series Continues
03 – Illinois NLRS Partnership Conference
14 – Illinois Farm Economic Summit, Mt. Vernon
15 – Illinois Farm Economic Summit, Sherman
16 – Illinois Farm Economic Summit, Peoria
17 – Illinois Farm Economic Summit, DeKalb

January
19 – Illinois Fertilizer and Chemical Association Winter Convention
26-27 – Illinois Soybean Summit

March
09 – All Day Ag Outlook at the Beef House

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Commodity Week can be heard in the 2 o’clock hour central time on WILL AM580 or you may subscribe to it using the links in the player below. This week the panelists include Dave Chatterton of Strategic Farm Marketing, Ellen Dearden from AgReview, and Brian Splitt with AgMarket..

The Closing Market Report airs at 2:06 p.m. central daily on WILL AM580. It, too, is a podcast. Subscribe using the link in the player.