WILLAg Radio Week 20 in Review
The following is a summary of the WILLAg.org content from the work week ending May 15, 2026.
Agricultural Markets Weekly Synthesis
Throughout the week, the agricultural markets were heavily influenced by the USDA WASDE report, macroeconomic indicators, geopolitical trade developments, and the shifting positions of commodity funds. Early in the week, Curt Kimmel emphasized the significant influence of commodity funds, which held massive net-long positions, and noted that robust global demand was required to push new crop corn above $5 and soybeans above $12. The subsequent WASDE release yielded mixed reactions; Naomi Blohm observed that the corn data was largely unimpressive due to a nearly 2 billion bushel carryout, whereas soybean estimates unexpectedly reflected increased export and crush demand, dropping projected new crop ending stocks to roughly 310 million bushels. Greg Johnson highlighted a major mid-week rally in the wheat market, triggered by the USDA significantly lowering hard red winter wheat yields and accounting for substantial abandoned acres in western states. However, sentiment turned bearish late in the week following the Trump-Xi summit, which concluded without a new trade deal for soybeans. Matt Bennett noted this lack of a deal, combined with increased Brazilian production estimates from Conab, triggered a sharp sell-off across corn, wheat, and soybeans. Closing out the week, Mike Zuzolo framed the late-week downturn as a broad profit-taking correction by funds, warning that surging crude oil prices could pressure the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates and halt further commodity rallies, though he noted a positive takeaway from China renewing U.S. beef export licenses.
Agricultural Weather Weekly Synthesis
Meteorological reports this week tracked a transition from unseasonably cool conditions across North America to a warmer, highly volatile pattern marked by severe dryness and incoming storms. Early forecasts from Don Day indicated that lingering cold air over Canada would finally be displaced by warmer western air over the weekend, though he noted high uncertainty in the extended outlook due to atmospheric responses from a rapidly developing El Niño. Drew Lerner confirmed the impending heat wave, projecting temperatures in the 80s and 90s for the western Corn Belt, but cautioned that this heat, paired with high winds and low humidity, would accelerate desiccation in the already drought-stressed hard red winter wheat regions of the High Plains. The severity of the dryness was quantified mid-week by Mike Tannura, who reported near-record dry conditions for spring wheat in the Dakotas and Montana, while also forecasting a major cold front expected to deliver 1 to 2 inches of rain across a newly dried-out Corn Belt. By Friday, Eric Snodgrass illustrated the extreme impacts of the northwestern drought, detailing a massive dust storm in North Dakota where blowing dirt piled up like snowdrifts. He concluded by warning of severe weekend storms bringing over an inch of moisture eastward across the Midwest, even as 90% of Nebraska remained locked in severe to extreme drought conditions.
The Week’s News and Other Items
International Year of the Woman Farmer Commentary: Todd Gleason noted that 2026 was declared the International Year of the Woman Farmer by the United Nations. He questioned the Trump administration’s unexplained decision to deny the appointment of four women to the check-off funded United Soybean Board.
Phosphorus Loads & Streambanks: Soil scientist Andrew Margenot detailed research showing that natural streambank erosion accounts for roughly 30% of non-point phosphorus loading into waterways. He explained that tile drainage can either decrease or increase this stream flashiness and subsequent erosion, depending on the soil’s natural infiltration capacity.
Ragged Corn but a Good Start for IL Crops: Agronomist Giovani Preza Fontes reported that soybean and corn planting in Illinois progressed well ahead of the five-year average. However, he noted that extreme temperature fluctuations in April led to highly variable growing degree day accumulations, resulting in “ragged” or uneven emergence times across Illinois fields.
The Farm Bill, Beef Imports, Trump and Xi, E15 and SREs: Senator Charles Grassley expressed skepticism about passing a bipartisan farm bill in the Senate due to disagreements over SNAP anti-fraud reforms. Meanwhile, Senator Jerry Moran reported from Beijing that agricultural exports were a central focus ahead of the Trump-Xi meeting, while domestic federal officials advanced temporary measures to increase beef imports to stabilize consumer prices amid low U.S. cattle inventories. Additionally, a union survey revealed that 76% of USDA researchers affected by agency relocations to Kansas City indicated they would refuse to move.
A bipartisan group of lawmakers, including Representative Nikki Budzinski, held a press conference to advocate for permanent, year-round E15 fuel sales to replace the current reliance on temporary EPA waivers. The House subsequently passed the E15 legislation by a narrow 218 to 203 margin. The bill now moves to the Senate, where its passage is uncertain after being separated from the stalled farm bill.
farmdoc Projects October ARC/PLC Payments: University of Illinois agricultural economists projected the upcoming October ARC and PLC payments based on newly released county yields. They estimated national average payments of $58 per acre for corn, $29 per acre for soybeans, and $47 per acre for wheat.
USTR Posts the Board of Trade will facilitate trade with China: The Office of the U.S. Trade Representative is developing a government-to-government “Board of Trade” to manage bilateral commerce in non-sensitive goods, including agricultural products. The initiative is designed to facilitate a $30 billion managed trade agreement with China without demanding changes to Beijing’s state-directed economic model.
Trump Supports Chinese Farm Ownership and Thom Tillis Doesn’t: Senator Thom Tillis raised concerns regarding Chinese investments in U.S. farmland and meat processing facilities. He also noted that agriculture typically suffers immediate and disproportionate negative impacts during international trade skirmishes.
President Donald Trump voiced support for allowing Chinese nationals to purchase U.S. farmland, arguing that restricting it would cause farm prices to drop and hurt farmers. He also defended the presence of Chinese students in U.S. universities, stating that removing them would devastate the university system.
Editor’s note: This article was adapted from the week’s WILLAg.org radio broadcast transcripts, formatted for print with the assistance of Google’s generative AI tool, Gemini, and reviewed by Todd Gleason.
Commodity Week can be heard in the 2 o’clock hour central time on WILL AM580 or you may subscribe to it using the links in the player below. This week the panelists include Greg Johnson of TGM, Chip Nellinger from Blue Reef Agri-Marketing, and Brian Stark with The Andersons.
The Closing Market Report airs at 2:06 p.m. central daily on WILL AM580. It, too, is a podcast. Subscribe using the link in the player.