WILLAg Radio Week 34 in Review
The following is a summary of the WILLAg.org content from the work week ending August 21, 2026. WILLAg.org is a partnership of Illinois Public Media and University of Illinois Extension. Its mission is to distribute regionally, nationally, and internationally information and analysis of commodity markets and agricultural weather.
Agricultural Markets Synthesis
Throughout the week, agricultural commodity markets experienced a counter-seasonal rally supported by evidence of potentially lower corn yields relative to earlier USDA forecasts, but primarily driven by late-season demand for U.S. crops. A major theme was the drag on corn yield potential resulting from early-season moisture and heavy June rainfall. This was identified by Pro Farmer Crop Tour scouts in the eastern Corn Belt. As analyzed by Matt Bennett (AgMarket.net) and Mike Zuzolo (GlobalCommResearch.com), this potential agronomic damage, if confirmed by USDA objective yields to be taken in September, could continue to drive a supplyside dominated corn market. Pro Farmer on Friday afternoon reduced its estimate of the the U.S. corn yield to 173.2 bushels per acre—a sharp drop from the USDA’s August 180.7 projection. Generally, the trade follows the Pro Farmer crop tour numbers closely, but does not react to its national yield estimate. It will be interesting to see how the corn futures open Sunday evening in light of the surprisingly low corn projection. It is important to remember the U.S. corn crop is in the midst of grain fill. The recent rains, while damaging in some areas, could make it a good end-of-season run. There is a link to a new article on this subject from the University of Illinois further down in this letter.
Beyond the in field projections, critical market drivers and input dynamics extended to global weather, trade, and geopolitics. Matt Maltzbarger (University of Missouri/FAPRI) highlighted that elevated nitrogen fertilizer prices—spurred by the U.S.-Iran war—and a favorable soybean-to-corn price ratio may cause farmers to consider shifting 2027 acreage away from corn. Furthermore, grain markets remained sensitive to Chinese purchasing commitments ahead of a late-September summit between President Trump and President Xi. The war between Ukraine and Russia continues to expand into the Black Sea shipping lanes. This disruption coupled with a drought stricken western European corn crop has pushed regional corn futures at the Paris exchange even higher with spillover effects on global trade. Finally, adding pressure to the livestock sector, Mike Zuzolo (Global Commodity Analytics and Consulting) reported severe headwinds for cattle futures following a federal initiative to import 300,000 metric tons of discounted beef to suppress consumer food prices.
Agricultural Weather Synthesis
Midwest weather throughout the week progressed from widespread, severe storm clusters and excessive moisture toward a much-needed drying and moderating pattern. Early in the week, Mark Russo of EverStream Analytics detailed that heavy weekend storms dumped 1 to 5 inches of localized rainfall across Ohio and Indiana, bringing total precipitation along the I-80 to I-70 corridor from southeast Iowa to Columbus, Ohio, to 3 to 11 inches. He forecasted a weakening storm pattern over the ensuing two weeks, offering relief to flooded fields, while projecting a shift toward cooler, wetter conditions across Western Europe that would aid river transport and winter crop planting. Don Day of Day Weather tracked the persistent thunderstorm factory generated by moisture streaming from the Gulf and Mexico around a southern high-pressure system, noting that frequent 1-to-3-inch rain pockets saturated soils across Nebraska and the central Corn Belt before storm intensity began scaling back.
Midweek, Drew Lerner of World Weather Inc. highlighted global meteorological extremes, including severe flooding on Luzon Island in the Philippines, persistent El Niño-driven dryness and wildfire risks across Indonesia and southern Asia, and historic drought in France with critically low river levels. For the U.S. Corn Belt, Lerner emphasized that saturated fields and cooler temperatures in the 70s and low 80s were suppressing heat units, creating an urgent need for dry, warm conditions to finish soybean crops. Mike Tannura of Tstorm.net reported that despite 15% of the Corn Belt experiencing excessive rain over a 10-to-20-day window, a broader drying trend heading into late August and September would normalize the 60-day moisture balance with temperatures remaining mostly seasonal. Concluding the weekly outlook, Eric Snodgrass of Nutrien Ag Solutions confirmed that the wet pattern had broken, forecasting sustained sunshine and climbing temperatures that would provide the necessary growing degree days to mature the crop, while pointing to potential dry planting delays in northern South America as an emerging focal point.
The Week’s News and Other Items
In agricultural industry and policy developments, Tyson Foods announced the permanent closure of its beef packing plant in Joslin, Illinois, resulting in roughly 2,500 lost jobs. Darrell Peel of Oklahoma State University explained that the closure, along with the potential sale of Tyson’s Pasco, Washington facility, reflects persistent excess slaughter capacity relative to tight domestic cattle supplies, which will increase transportation costs for regional cattle producers.
In Washington, D.C., Senate Agriculture Committee Chairman John Boozman maintained a firm stance on farm bill negotiations, offering a final one-year delay on SNAP penalty provisions and noting that the return of Senator Mitch McConnell from medical rehabilitation could provide the decisive vote needed to advance the bill despite Democratic opposition.
In energy markets, Dave Chatterton of Strategic Farm Marketing evaluated the expiration of the US-Iran ceasefire memorandum, warning that the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, “dark fleet” oil shipping, and a 2.4-million-barrel-per-day drawdown in global petroleum stocks have pushed distillate inventories to three-decade lows ahead of harvest, creating upside price exposure for farm diesel. Mike Zuzolo of GlobalCommResearch.com also noted livestock market pressure following the administration’s announcement of plans to import 300,000 metric tons of African beef at discounted prices.
Throughout the week, scouts on the Pro Farmer Crop Tour documented stark agronomic variability across the Midwest. Sherman Newlin of Zaner Ag Hedge reported severe drought stress, low pod counts, and sub-par ear development across South Dakota and western Iowa, alongside mud and wet field conditions in Nebraska and better corn yields averaging 201 bushels per acre in southwest Minnesota. Oliver Sloup of Blue Line Ag Futures observed standing water, reduced plant populations, and disease pressure across Ohio, Indiana, and Illinois, before finding stronger corn averaging 215 to 220 bushels per acre in north-central Iowa’s “garden spot”. Concluding the tour, Pro Farmer economist Lane Akre announced the final national yield projections: a reduced corn yield of 173.2 bushels per acre (15.344 billion bushels total) resulting from extensive eastern nutrient leaching and low ear counts, contrasted against a record soybean yield of 53.3 bushels per acre (4.572 billion bushels total) supported by ample late-season pod fill moisture.
The 2026 Illinois corn crop presents a complex yield scenario shaped heavily by mid-summer weather variations impacting kernel development. While early July brought temperatures 2 to 4 degrees warmer than normal, these high maximums coupled with drying soils led to instances of ear tip-back, where kernels at the ear’s tip failed to fertilize or aborted shortly after. However, University of Illinois researchers note in a cropCENTRAL article
that the yield impact of this tip-back can be mitigated by robust ear counts and sustained canopy health throughout the grain-fill period. If kernels fill out larger than average—requiring roughly 70,000 to 75,000 kernels per bushel—yields could push well above the USDA’s August projection of 212 bushels per acre. The crop’s final performance will hinge on conditions during the ongoing grain-fill stage, as warm nights have accelerated development, leaving some early-planted fields nearing black layer and overall statewide progress slightly ahead of schedule.
That is a comprehensive look at the markets, the weather, and the news driving agriculture this week. You can find all of these segments, plus daily market updates from our farmdoc team, online anytime on demand at WILLAg.org.
Editor’s note: This article was adapted from the week’s WILLAg.org radio broadcast transcripts, formatted for print with the assistance of Google’s generative AI tool, Gemini, and reviewed by Todd Gleason.
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University of Illinois Extension and Crop Sciences Agronomy Days
August
25 – Focus on the Future: Sustaining Farm Legacy | Mt. Vernon
27 – WEBINAR | Rents and Prices Outlook: Results from a Mid-Year Survey
September
02 – Orr Beef Research Center Field Day
10 – Illinois Crop Management Field Day
19 – Celebrate Food and Ag Tailgate – ILLINOIS vs SIU
October
26-29 – 1st International Miscanthus Summit
28 – Celebrating 150 Years of the Morrow Plots
December
03 – Illinois NLRS Conference
14 – Illinois Farm Economic Summit, Mt. Vernon
15 – Illinois Farm Economic Summit, Sherman
16 – Illinois Farm Economic Summit, Peoria
17 – Illinois Farm Economic Summit, DeKalb
January
19 – Illinois Fertilizer and Chemical Association Winter Convention
https://www.ifca.com/convention
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Commodity Week can be heard in the 2 o’clock hour central time on WILL AM580 or you may subscribe to it using the links in the player below. This week the panelists include Dave Chatterton of Strategic Farm Marketing, Greg Johnson with TGM, and Brian Stark at The Andersons.
The Closing Market Report airs at 2:06 p.m. central daily on WILL AM580. It, too, is a podcast. Subscribe using the link in the player.