The 2018–2019 U.S.–China trade war disrupted soybean export markets, but whether those disruptions propagated to downstream poultry prices remains unclear. This study traces price transmission along the soybean-to-chicken supply chain using weekly futures-price innovations and regime-specific local projections. Upstream price transmission lost persistence during the retaliatory-tariff period, with sustained propagation over subsequent weeks collapsing especially for soybean meal prices, and recovered during the Phase One period. Wholesale and retail poultry prices show little evidence of systematic pass-through. The results suggest that trade-policy disruptions to price transmission were concentrated upstream, with U.S. chicken consumers largely insulated from the shock.
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