WILLAg Radio Week 21 in Review
The following is a summary of the WILLAg.org content from the work week ending May 22, 2026. WILLAg.org is a partnership of Illinois Public Media and University of Illinois Extension. Its mission is to distribute regionally, nationally, and internationally information and analysis of commodity markets and agricultural weather.
Agricultural Markets Synthesis
The agricultural markets experienced a volatile week marked by risk-on and risk-off trading, heavily influenced by geopolitical news and macroeconomic factors. Curt Kimmel (AgMarket.net) , Dave Chatterton (Strategic Farm Marketing) , and Collin Watters (ILCorn.org) noted that the dominant driver early in the week was optimism surrounding potential US-China trade deliverables, specifically talk of an additional $17 billion in agricultural purchases beyond existing soybean commitments. Naomi Blohm (TotalFarmMarketing.com) pointed out that the initial rally pulled back as traders waited for specific details and flash sales confirmations. Midweek, Greg Johnson (Total Grain Marketing) observed profit-taking pressured by a $5 drop in crude oil prices. Despite this, Matt Bennett (AgMarket.net) highlighted that the corn market maintained its uptrend, supported by exceptionally strong export demand. Approaching the long holiday weekend, Mike Zuzolo (GlobalCommResearch.com) emphasized the impact of macroeconomic factors, explaining that rising bond yields and inflation concerns stemming from the prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz are altering risk traders’ abilities and setting up the energy markets to potentially lead other commodities higher. Additionally, analysts monitored the divergence between cash and futures in the feeder cattle market ahead of a critical Cattle on Feed report.
Agricultural Weather Synthesis
Weather across the agricultural belts presented a complex mix of temperature swings and inconsistent moisture throughout the week. Mark Russo (EverStream.ai) reported mostly dry, favorable planting conditions early on for the summer crop belts, though hard red winter wheat areas continued to suffer from long-term dryness. Don Day (DayWeather.com) noted extreme variations, including 12 to 30 inches of late snow in Wyoming and severe weather with beneficial rains in parts of Nebraska and Iowa. As the week progressed, Drew Lerner (World Weather, Inc.) highlighted the frustration of wild temperature swings in the Plains, where crops endured both freezing lows and extreme heat. Mike Tannura (Tstorm.net) warned that a complex storm setup bringing scattered showers could slow down late corn planting across the Central US. Looking ahead, Eric Snodgrass (Nutrien Ag Solutions) forecasted a shift toward routinely warmer temperatures for the end of May and into June, noting that while northern Illinois is becoming abnormally dry, a wet lower Mississippi River Valley reduces the risk of a broader drought developing early in the summer.
The Week’s News and Other Items
farmdoc 2026 Crop Budget Updates: University of Illinois Extension’s Todd Gleason interviewed agricultural economist Nick Paulson regarding updated 2026 crop budgets published by the farmdoc team. Despite rising fuel and fertilizer costs stemming from recent geopolitical conflict, projected returns for 2026 have improved since January due to higher corn and soybean price prospects. While diesel costs are significantly higher, the impact on 2026 averages remains manageable; however, sustained elevated input prices pose a substantial threat to 2027 profitability. Current projections for 2026 indicate slightly positive returns on a 50/50 corn-soybean rotation, though these figures remain well below historical averages and rely heavily on government ARC and PLC payments. Paulson noted that crop insurance is unlikely to provide additional support under trend yields, as significant price declines would be required to trigger payments, effectively offsetting any potential revenue losses. Looking ahead, the team anticipates that 2027 will likely yield negative return projections, exacerbated by the structural design of government support programs that will reflect lower rolling averages for revenue guarantees.
US-China Ag Deliverables: Discussions focused on the formation of a Board of Trade to manage bilateral relations and the potential $17 billion in agricultural product commitments. The Commodity Week panel characterized the current agricultural trade relationship between the United States and China as “managed trade” rather than “free trade”. The discussion highlighted that this trade approach is being driven heavily by politics and global power dynamics—including considerations involving Taiwan, Iran, and Russia—rather than strictly economic market forces. Collin Watters expressed the view that such managed trade ultimately distorts market dynamics, while Dave Chatterton noted that while economists have a role, the current situation involves two global leaders attempting to balance cooperation with the promotion of their individual geopolitical agendas. The panelists further observed that China’s purchasing decisions often appear motivated by political strategy—such as seeking tariff cuts—even when those purchases do not align with their internal economic needs.
Comparing Corn Production Costs: Purdue University agricultural economist Joana Colussi’s recent analysis, utilizing data from the agri benchmark network, highlights fundamental differences in how Iowa and Mato Grosso producers manage corn production costs. In Brazil, production is driven by direct input expenses—specifically a heavy reliance on imported nitrogen—which account for more than half of the total cost structure. Conversely, U.S. corn production in Iowa is largely defined by high overhead costs, including land values, machinery, and labor. While Iowa maintains a massive advantage in yield—producing double that of Brazil—and scale, the Brazilian model remains highly competitive by utilizing the safrinha (second-crop) system. This strategy allows Brazilian farmers to distribute fixed land and equipment costs across two crops per year, keeping their total production costs lower than their U.S. counterparts. Ultimately, while the United States remains more efficient in terms of yield and scale, its competitive position is most vulnerable when global fertilizer prices inflate direct input costs, whereas Brazil’s corn growth remains constrained by its dependence on specific rainfall patterns and narrow planting windows following the soybean harvest.
Deere Right to Repair Settlement: John Deere received preliminary approval for a $19.9 million settlement regarding a class action right-to-repair lawsuit initiated by farmers.
USDA Considers Moving Seedbanks: The USDA proposed relocating the public soybean seed bank and the Maize Genetics Cooperation Stock Center away from the University of Illinois, drawing concern from local experts.
IL General Assembly Pipeline Action: The Illinois legislature considers a bill that would ban companies from using eminent domain to seize land for CO2 pipelines.
Year-Round E15 and EV Taxes: Nationwide year-round E15 legislation faces an uphill battle in the US Senate due to infrastructure hurdles and small refinery exemptions. Separately, proposed surface transportation funding legislation may impose a new annual tax of up to $150 on electric vehicles.
Ag Energies and the Strait of Hormuz: The ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz dominated energy discussions, with analysts Patrick De Haan and Dave Chatterton projecting that full recovery of global oil inventories could stretch into late 2027, heavily impacting agricultural fuel costs.
Logan County Data Center Moratorium: The Logan County Board successfully passed a 12-month moratorium halting the consideration of a proposed data center near Latham.
Editor’s note: This article was adapted from the week’s WILLAg.org radio broadcast transcripts, formatted for print with the assistance of Google’s generative AI tool, Gemini, and reviewed by Todd Gleason.
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Commodity Week can be heard in the 2 o’clock hour central time on WILL AM580 or you may subscribe to it using the links in the player below. This week the panelists include Dave Chatterton with SFarmMarketing.com, Curt Kimmel of AgMarket.net and Collin Watters from the ILCorn.org.
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