WILLAg Radio Week 32 in Review

The following is a summary of the WILLAg.org content from the work week ending August 7, 2026. WILLAg.org is a partnership of Illinois Public Media and University of Illinois Extension. Its mission is to distribute regionally, nationally, and internationally information and analysis of commodity markets and agricultural weather.

Agricultural Markets Synthesis

Throughout the week, agricultural commodity markets exhibited a shifting dynamic from early technical bounces to cautious, sideways-to-lower trading driven by weather relief and pre-report positioning. Early in the week, Jerry Gulke (Gulke Group) noted that corn and soybeans experienced a key technical reversal upward. He emphasized that fund money flows and technical support levels were key drivers, advising producers to manage risk by recognizing critical chart floors. By Tuesday, incoming Midwest rainfall removed immediate weather premiums, causing futures to pull back. Naomi Blohm (Total Farm Marketing) explained that market movements were heavily dictated by technical chart patterns, with corn and soybeans testing key 50% and 61% Fibonacci retracement levels. She noted that while old-crop corn still offered cash sales opportunities, new-crop sales should be paused as global balance sheets tighten due to European drought conditions. Ed Usset (University of Minnesota Extension) highlighted that while national crop prospects represent a mixed bag, Minnesota is tracking toward potential record yields in corn, soybeans, and wheat. He noted that summer highs in soybeans were likely set if normal August weather prevails. Usset said while harvest pressure might push corn prices 20 to 30 cents lower, strong market carry offers solid opportunities to capture basis and board gains post-harvest.

As the week progressed toward the release of the USDA Crop Production and WASDE reports (due this coming Wednesday), technical chart defense became the primary theme. On the *Commodity Week* broadcast, panelists Ellen Dearden (Ag Review) and Naomi Blohm (Total Farm Marketing) discussed market expectations, agreeing that USDA would likely keep corn yields near trendline levels of 183 bushels per acre and soybean yields around 53 bushels per acre. Dearden noted USDA satellite-based yield modeling might shave planted acres, while Blohm underscored the need to closely monitor global line items—specifically shrinking European corn/wheat production, Chinese import demand, and South American crop setup. Jim McCormick (AgMarket.net) detailed how December corn was actively defending its 50-day moving average near $4.57–$4.62, warning that a technical breakdown could trigger a head-and-shoulders pattern projecting down to $4.25. Similarly, November soybeans were defending their 100-day moving average near $11.70–$11.75, with downside risks toward $11.35 if support fails. McCormick highlighted long-term bullish drivers, too, including prospective trade tariff agreements with China, severe Black Sea export reductions from Ukraine, and El Niño climate threats across global production zones. Closing out the week, Mike Zuzolo (GlobalCommResearch.com) pointed to broader macroeconomic drivers, including a surge in gold/silver, a 5.5% drop in the Russian ruble, proposed U.S. sanctions targeting Russian and Iranian oil importers like China, and Asian central bank currency interventions. His modeling pointed to a corn yield near 180 bushels per acre and soybean yields around 51 to 51.5 bushels per acre, while emphasizing severe global corn export price disparities.

Agricultural Weather Synthesis

Agricultural weather forecasts over the week tracked a shifting summer pattern across the U.S. Corn Belt alongside severe, persistent climate anomalies globally. At the start of the week, Mark Russo (EverStream Analytics) reported that widespread weekend rainfall covered approximately two-thirds of Midwest corn and soybean acreage, shrinking dry pockets across the region, though areas in northwest Iowa and the Dakotas missed out. He highlighted a severe, crop-disaster drought across Western Europe (particularly France), expanding dryness in Southeast Asian palm regions, and a strengthening super El Niño (Niño 3.4 sea surface temperatures exceeding +2.0°C) that increases the risk of a wet U.S. harvest in October. Don Day (Day Weather) noted that August would see a shift from July’s western heat toward a more normal pattern as the northern jet stream and subtropical moisture (“ring of fire”) bring rain opportunities across the Corn Belt, while isolating heat and dryness to Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, and southern Missouri.

By midweek, Drew Lerner (World Weather Inc.) explained that global weather remained in a stagnant rut driven by the El Niño and Madden-Julian Oscillation. He noted that while a Canadian cold snap brought temporary relief to dry pockets in the U.S. Northern Plains, main Midwest growing regions continued to receive timely showers. Internationally, Lerner cited typhoon-driven flooding in eastern China, an impending dry bias in India, and subsoil moisture depletion affecting short-rooted crops and deep-rooted tree crops (oil palm) in Indonesia. Mike Tannura (T-Storm Weather) detailed the atmospheric mechanism behind Midwest rains, explaining that cool fronts passing to the north clashing with southern heat created an active storm track that mixed thunderstorm clusters across different areas. He characterized this setup as ideal for soybean pod filling while keeping corn temperatures near or slightly below normal, whereas Western Europe’s 1988-style drought showed no signs of breaking. Wrapping up the week, Eric Snodgrass (Nutrien Ag Solutions) discussed the hyper-local nature of summer convective rainfall, noting that 70% of the U.S. remains under some stage of drought. However, he emphasized that cooler August temperatures across the Eastern Corn Belt prevent flash droughts and help maintain strong national yield potential. Snodgrass also shared insights from visiting Brazilian farm groups, who confirmed that total acreage expansion is halting and expressed concern over El Niño climate patterns causing excessive wetness in southern Brazil and dryness in northern growing regions.

Week’s News and Other Items

Profit-Driven Fall Fertilizer Strategy: As Illinois farmers prepare for fall 2026 fertilizer applications following a season of significant nitrogen loss, soil fertility specialist John Jones (University of Illinois Extension) advises prioritizing profit margins over maximum yield. While statewide corn yields remain competitive, he says wet June conditions caused notable nitrogen losses. Looking forward, data from 800 Illinois trials indicates fertilizing for optimal profit rather than maximum bushels (using the online Corn Nitrogen Rate Calculator) results in a negligible yield sacrifice of just 1.5 to 2 bushels per acre. New research to be posted soon to the cropCentral website shows optimum rates for fall-applied anhydrous run 16 to 20 pounds higher than spring applications. Applications should be delayed until soil temperatures at a four-inch depth are 50 degrees and cooling, with operators ensuring proper slit closure to prevent physical nitrogen loss.

High input costs, John Jones told WILLAg.org, are also forcing a reevaluation of phosphorus management. With diammonium phosphate (DAP) prices exceeding $900 per ton, there is no annual return on investment for corn or soybeans if soil phosphorus levels already test at 17 to 18 parts per million. The probability of a crop response to additional phosphorus drops to zero once soil levels reach 20 to 30 parts per million. Consequently, producers can safely draw down soil phosphorus levels in high-testing zones for one to two years. Jones stresses the immediate value of updated grid and zone soil sampling. Investing seven to eight dollars per acre in a soil testing program allows producers to precisely identify non-responsive field zones, avoiding the unnecessary expense of applying 40 to 60 pounds of phosphorus per acre.

Crop Physiology Field Day & Root Architecture: Connor Sible and Jared Fender (University of Illinois) presented new research findings at the 5th annual Crop Physiology Field Day. Fender detailed research on matching specific corn hybrid root architectures with tillage and fertilizer placement strategies. He explained, as an example, that smaller-rooted hybrids benefit significantly from shallow or placed fertilizer (such as in strip-till or no-till systems) because their root mass lacks the reach to find deep nutrients, thereby improving fertilizer use efficiency and yield.

Economics of Agrivoltaics: Madhu Khanna (Institute for Sustainability, Energy, and Environment at the University of Illinois) summarized five years of research from the USDA-funded SCAPES project. The study found that while shade-tolerant specialty crops (such as leafy greens and herbs) thrive in agrivoltaics systems in arid regions like Arizona, full-sun row crops like corn, soybeans, and sorghum experience yield reductions even under wider spaced solar panels. While solar generation is highly land-efficient—requiring less than 2% of all U.S. cropland to meet 40% of U.S. electricity needs by 2050—co-locating row crops with panels presents equipment spacing and profitability challenges in the Midwest.

Higher Renewable Volume Obligations Fuel Industry Growth: Paul Winters (Clean Fuels Alliance America) reported that the EPA’s finalized Renewable Fuel Standard volumes increased biomass-based diesel obligations to 5.4 billion gallons (up from 3.35 billion in 2025). This regulatory increase has enabled idled biodiesel plants to reopen—bringing industry operating capacity to 86%—and incentivized oilseed processors to invest over $6 billion to expand crush capacity from 2 billion to 2.6–2.75 billion bushels of soybeans annually.

ADM Investing in Crush Capacity: Driven by biofuel policy demand, ADM announced targeted infrastructure enhancements across four North American production facilities in Frankfort, Indiana; Deerfield, Missouri; Lincoln, Nebraska; and Spiritwood, North Dakota. These debottlenecking and storage upgrades will add 700,000 metric tons of annual crush capacity, creating new demand for over 25 million bushels of crops upon completion between mid-2028 and early 2029.

Ethanol Plant Profits and 45z: Dan O’Brien (Kansas State University Extension) reviewed bioenergy industry profitability, noting that ethanol plants are operating at favorable margins of 20 to 40 cents per gallon above break-even costs ($1.58 break-even versus $1.78 market price). Analyzing the 45Z tax regulations, O’Brien identified low-carbon ethanol plants and renewable diesel as clear winners, while traditional biodiesel faces feedstock cost sensitivity and Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) plants await further regulatory signals.

Senate Fails to Pass a Farm Bill & a note on Tariffs: In policy news, the U.S. Senate recessed without passing Farm Bill 2.0, putting agricultural legislation behind schedule. On economic policy, Michael Waugh (Minneapolis Federal Reserve) reported that U.S. effective tariff rates have stabilized around 7% following Supreme Court rulings and Section 301 updates. Recent data indicates that these tariffs are beginning to exert a subtle inflationary impulse, accounting for approximately 50 basis points of current inflation.

That is a comprehensive look at the markets, the weather, and the news driving agriculture this week. You can find all of these segments, plus daily market updates from our farmdoc team, online anytime on demand at WILLAg.org.

Editor’s note: This article was adapted from the week’s WILLAg.org radio broadcast transcripts, formatted for print with the assistance of Google’s generative AI tool, Gemini, and reviewed by Todd Gleason.

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University of Illinois Extension and Crop Sciences Agronomy Days

August
11 – Alma Mater Plots Agronomy Day
12 – Insect Management and Field Plot Tour
13 – Edge of Field Practices Field Day
14 – Illinois State Fair Ag Day
19 – Illinois State Fair Sale of Champions

October
26-29 – 1st International Miscanthus Summit

September
19 – Celebrate Food and Ag Tailgate – ILLINOIS vs SIU
30 – University of Illinois Homecoming

October
28 – Morrow Plots 150th Celebration

November
03 – Illinois NLRS Conference

December
14 – Illinois Farm Economic Summit, Mt. Vernon
15 – Illinois Farm Economic Summit, Sherman
16 – Illinois Farm Economic Summit, Peoria
17 – Illinois Farm Economic Summit, DeKalb

January
19 – Illinois Fertilizer and Chemical Association Winter Convention

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Commodity Week can be heard in the 2 o’clock hour central time on WILL AM580 or you may subscribe to it using the links in the player below. This week the panelists include Naomi Blohm from Total Farm Marketing and Ellen Dearden of AgReview.

The Closing Market Report airs at 2:06 p.m. central daily on WILL AM580. It, too, is a podcast. Subscribe using the link in the player.