WILLAg Radio Week 35 in Review

The following is a summary of the WILLAg.org content from the work week ending August 28, 2026. WILLAg.org is a partnership of Illinois Public Media and University of Illinois Extension. Its mission is to distribute regionally, nationally, and internationally information and analysis of commodity markets and agricultural weather.

Agricultural Markets Synthesis

Agricultural markets experienced a significant late-summer rally driven by supply-side reductions, escalating geopolitical tensions, and robust global demand. Wheat led the broader grain complex higher—surging as much as 45 cents in a limit move—due to intensifying military conflicts and export infrastructure disruptions in the Russia-Ukraine Black Sea corridor. Soybean markets showed relative strength, underpinned by a continued wave of Chinese export demand and robust domestic crushing activity driven by Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) biomass-based diesel mandates, though upside momentum faced friction from rumors of potential Small Refinery Exemptions (SREs) for 2025. Market analysts and program guests—including Sherman Newlin of Zaner Ag Hedge, Greg Johnson of Total Grain Marketing, Naomi Blohm of Total Farm Marketing, Matt Bennett of AgMarket.net, Scott Irwin of the University of Illinois, Mike Zuzolo of Global Commodity Analytics, and *Commodity Week* panelists Mike Castle of StoneX, Logan Kimmel of Roach Ag, and Chip Nellinger of Blue Reef Agri-Marketing—advised producers to capitalize on these unexpected profitable margin opportunities through incremental risk management, such as the “sell-and-defend” marketing model, locking in cash sales for space and cash flow while utilizing options to retain upside participation against potential winter rallies or South American weather threats.

Agricultural Weather Synthesis

Weather forecasts tracked a transition from a cool, wet August toward an unusually warm and increasingly dry pattern across the central United States heading into September. Early-summer precipitation left soils adequately recharged but caused localized saturation and nitrogen leaching concerns in portions of the central Corn Belt. Meteorologists and agronomic specialists—including Mike Tannura of Tstorm Weather, Drew Lerner of World Weather Inc., Eric Snodgrass of Nutrien Ag Solutions, Mark Russo of EverStream Analytics, and Don Day of Day Weather—projected a persistent high-pressure ridge shifting into the central and southern Plains, bringing a historic string of days with temperatures in the 90s. Concurrently, an intensifying “super” El Niño pattern across the Pacific continued to suppress Atlantic tropical storm development via increased wind shear while shifting soil moisture dynamics toward drier biases in the western Corn Belt and posing mixed planting and harvesting implications across South American growing regions.

The Week’s News and Other Items

Farmland Values and Cash Rents Survey: University of Illinois agricultural economists Thursday hosted a webinar presenting results from a mid-year survey analyzing the outlook for 2027 farmland prices, cash rents, and the proliferation of wind, solar, and data center leases. You may watch the full webinar online.

WATCH the Farmland Values and Cash Rents Survey webinar

Updated Crop Budgets and 2027 Corn & Soybean Returns: This coming Thursday (September 3 at 11am central) members of the U of I’s farmdoc Team will present the 2027 corn and soybean budgets as released on farmdoc. The webinar will review projected revenues, costs, and returns for corn and soybeans, placing current estimates in historical context. The presenters will also discuss key management considerations and offer perspective on decisions facing farmers, agribusiness, and landowners.

REGISTER for the Thursday, September 3 farmdoc webinar

Yield Prospects for the Illinois Corn Crop: University of Illinois extension agronomist Giovani Preza Fontes discusses field observations concerning tip back, ear populations, and kernel development. Despite reports from crop scouts across the eastern Corn Belt finding less productive crops, Preza Fontes remains confident that favorable moisture and anticipated late-season warmth will support strong grain fill.

Corn Uses N Stored in the Plant for Grain Fill: University of Illinois extension soil fertility specialist John Jones addressed the impact of heavy June rains and subsequent nitrogen variability across central and northern Illinois in this Closing Market Report conversation. Jones explains that while saturated soils caused early lower-canopy firing and lower-than-expected soil nitrate levels in research trials, a widespread yield cut (a 10% drop) is not anticipated for the state’s broader crop. As plants transition into the grain fill stage, they increasingly rely on remobilizing nitrogen already stored within the plant tissue, making robust canopy health critical for maintaining kernel weight.

The SRE Scare in D.C. is about Soybeans: University of Illinois agricultural economist Scott Irwin breaks down the brewing political debate in Washington, D.C., surrounding small refinery exemptions under the Renewable Fuel Standard in this conversation. In it, Irwin explains that while potential rule changes would offer minimal relief at the gasoline or diesel fuel pump, a sudden surge in small refinery exemptions could slash biomass-based fuel production under the RFS. Because soybean oil heavily feeds this sector and drives a substantial portion of a bushel’s crush value, these regulatory shifts pose billions of dollars in potential revenue risks for soybean producers and processors.

Sulfur and Increasing Phosphate Fertilizer Prices: While the U.S. is a major producer of sulfur given our large domestic oil and gas industry, fertilizers and energy products are global commodities, thus exposing U.S. farmers to global supply disruptions and resulting price increases. Recent sulfur spot prices have exceeded $1,000 per ton, an increase of more than 130% since the beginning of 2026 and more than 300% since August of 2025. This, combined with increases in anhydrous ammonia prices, have put pressure on phosphate fertilizer prices. DAP prices in the Corn Belt region have risen to nearly $850 per ton in recent weeks, up more than 20% than earlier in 2026.

Farm Machinery Demand Remains Weak as Manufacturers Manage Production: Gerald Mashange reviews the ongoing downturn in the U.S. farm machinery and equipment market, noting that year-to-date retail sales for tractors and combines continue to lag behind previous levels. While manufacturers have successfully reined in production and reduced factory inventories from their 2022 peaks, machinery prices remain elevated. Coupled with lower forecasted net farm incomes following earlier peak years, producers continue to face high replacement costs and restrained capital investment.

Cattle and Crops Create Synergy: Travis Meteer explores the mutual benefits and economic advantages of combining livestock production with row-crop farming. The article highlights how integrating cattle allows farms to utilize manure for fertilizer, graze cover crops and crop residues, feed co-products, and share equipment overhead costs. Emerging technologies like virtual fencing and animal monitoring continue to reduce hurdles, offering profitable opportunities to expand operations and help young producers return to the farm with lower capital investments.

Dolly Parton’s Imagination Library and a Farmer’s Family: Illinois farmer and commodity broker Garrett Toay shares how Dolly Parton’s cultural contributions extend beyond music to profound community enrichment through her Imagination Library program. Toay recounts how his family benefited from receiving free monthly books for their children from birth until starting school. Inspired by her father’s inability to read, Parton’s initiative has gifted hundreds of millions of books globally, helping families establish early childhood reading as a vital household priority.

Practical Cover Crop Management Advice: The Nutrient Loss Reduction podcast featured practical management advice from Illinois farmers Adam Dahmer, Brent Fowler, and Greg Thoren, who discussed effective no-till transitions, equipment adjustments, and targeting cover crops for erosion control.

That is a comprehensive look at the markets, the weather, and the news driving agriculture this week. You can find all of these segments, plus daily market updates from our farmdoc team, online anytime on demand at WILLAg.org.

Editor’s note: This article was adapted from the week’s WILLAg.org radio broadcast transcripts, formatted for print with the assistance of Google’s generative AI tool, Gemini, and reviewed by Todd Gleason.

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WILLAg.org Calendar

September
02 – Orr Beef Research Center Field Day
03 – farmdoc Webinar | Projected 2027 Corn and Soybean Returns
10 – Illinois Crop Management Field Day
17 – farmdoc Webinar | Farmland Values and Rental Agreements in Illinois for 2027
19 – Celebrate Food and Ag Tailgate – ILLINOIS vs SIU
30 – University of Illinois Homecoming

October
06 – PCM Webinar | 2026 PCM Fall Webinar Series Continues
26-29 – 1st International Miscanthus Summit
28 – Celebrating 150 Years of the Morrow Plots

December
01 – PCM Webinar | 2026 PCM Fall Webinar Series Continues
03 – Illinois NLRS Conference
14 – Illinois Farm Economic Summit, Mt. Vernon
15 – Illinois Farm Economic Summit, Sherman
16 – Illinois Farm Economic Summit, Peoria
17 – Illinois Farm Economic Summit, DeKalb

January
19 – Illinois Fertilizer and Chemical Association Winter Convention

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Commodity Week can be heard in the 2 o’clock hour central time on WILL AM580 or you may subscribe to it using the links in the player below. This week the panelists include Mike Castle from StoneX, Chip Nellinger of Blue Reef Agri-Marketing, and Logan Kimmel at Roach Ag.

The Closing Market Report airs at 2:06 p.m. central daily on WILL AM580. It, too, is a podcast. Subscribe using the link in the player.