WILLAg Radio Week 22 in Review
The following is a summary of the WILLAg.org content from the work week ending May 29, 2026. WILLAg.org is a partnership of Illinois Public Media and University of Illinois Extension. Its mission is to distribute regionally, nationally, and internationally information and analysis of commodity markets and agricultural weather.
Agricultural Markets Synthesis
Throughout the week, the agricultural commodity markets faced volatility driven by geopolitical developments, fluctuating energy prices, and domestic planting progress. Analysts Naomi Blohm, Arlan Suderman, Curt Kimmel, Greg Johnson, and Mike Zuzolo highlighted that December corn and November soybeans tested critical technical support lines. Early in the week, easing tensions in the Middle East and dropping crude oil prices placed downward pressure on grain markets, which was further compounded by rapid US planting progress and warm weather drying out fields. However, the markets eventually rebounded off these support levels, spurred by hopes of a peace agreement and potential Chinese goodwill purchases that could remove agricultural import tariffs. While poor weekly export sales weighed negatively on wheat, cattle, and corn, soybean oil remained a bright spot, posting massive year-to-date gains due to strong crush margins and fighting off weakness in the crude oil sector. Looking ahead to the 2027 crop year, Suderman and Blohm warned that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz poses a significant risk to future fertilizer availability and input costs. The analysts urged farmers to utilize the current sideways-to-lower market environment to create written marketing plans and execute cash sales, removing emotion from their decision-making during seasonal market highs.
Agricultural Weather Synthesis
On the weather front, meteorologists Don Day, Drew Lerner, Mike Tannura, and Eric Snodgrass tracked a shifting pattern across global growing regions. In the United States, critical drought relief arrived in the Southeast and Delta, while the hard red winter wheat regions of the plains received scattered showers. Conversely, the northern plains and Canadian prairies are enduring historically dry conditions and heat, posing a severe threat to spring wheat that upcoming minor rain systems are unlikely to alleviate. For the Corn Belt, fluctuating spring temperatures initially caused atypical early corn root development, but the region has since transitioned into a warmer period. Tannura, Snodgrass, and Day forecast an unusually dry pattern to dominate early June, which will help crops accumulate necessary Growing Degree Days and firm up soils. While Tannura cautioned that prolonged June dryness could pose severe yield risks if it persists into mid-summer, Snodgrass remains optimistic that a developing El Niño and a warm Northeast Pacific will usher in a stormy, wetter July. Globally, Lerner noted that El Niño is already bringing drier conditions to India and Indonesia, while a massive high-pressure ridge is rapidly drying down crops and topsoil in Western Europe.
The Week’s News and Other Items
Memorial Day: A special Memorial Day broadcast traced the origins of the holiday to 1868, honored fallen soldiers with a story on the nightly Menin Gate “Last Post” ceremony in Belgium, and highlighted the preservation of the 1904 J.H. Hawes Grain Elevator in Atlanta, Illinois.
U.S Trade Policy: U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer stated that the Trump administration will maintain tariffs, including Section 301 and 232 tariffs, due to the trade deficit. While negotiating with Mexico on a bilateral basis, Greer acknowledged trade challenges with Canada, particularly regarding dairy tariffs, and emphasized the need to address these issues. Greer says only two countries, Canada and China, have retaliated against the U.S. over its reciprocal tariffs. He claims some trade with Canada in fertilizer and energy will be fine despite ongoing USMCA negotiations, which Greer must extend, cancel, or renegotiate after July 1st.
45Z Tax Credit Guidelines Under Review: The National Corn Growers Association is actively pressing the Treasury Department and the IRS for predictable regulatory guidelines on the Section 45Z Clean Fuel Production Credit. NCGA First Vice President Matt Frostic emphasized that for aviation fuel to become a legitimate long-term demand driver, the scientific framework must verify and reward established on-farm conservation practices like no-till and cover cropping.
Global Biofuel Demand Shifts Trade Dominance: In a historic shift, Brazil has officially overtaken Argentina as the world’s number one exporter of soybean meal during the first four months of this year. The transition is driven by rapid structural expansions in biomass-based diesel production within Brazil and the United States, alongside aggressive tax policies in Argentina that have severely limited domestic production. In response, Argentina announced plans to gradually scale back its 24% soybean export tax down to 15% by 2028.
farmdoc Explores Fertilizer Industry Consolidation: With input costs remaining a top anxiety for producers, a new study from the University of Illinois farmdoc team explores global consolidation trends. Researcher Henrique Monaco points out that while the United States maintains a robust domestic production capacity for nitrogen (94% of domestic usage) and phosphate (87% of domestic usage), the nation remains almost entirely reliant on Canadian imports for its potassium needs. Read more on the farmdoc Daily website.
Kansas Wheat Crop Abandonment: Kansas State University Extension’s Dan O’Brien reported during Tuesday’s Closing Market Report that there are expectation Kansas wheat abandonment could reach up to 25% due to drought. O’Brien says conditions remained mixed and spotty, with a fair amount of abandonment, particularly in the central part of the state. USDA projects a yield of 37 bushels per acre in Kansas, the Kansas wheat tour estimated a yield of 38.7 bushels per acre.
How Farmers Respond to Climate-Related Risk: A study by the University of Illinois and Michigan State found that farmers are risk-averse, particularly in agriculture-specific areas, and their attitudes toward uncertainty vary widely. This research could provide valuable insights for policymakers. Natalie Loduca says she and her Michigan State colleague worked to better understand how farmers perceive uncertainty under changing climate conditions. Loduca and Scott Swinton found farmers are risk-averse in both general and agriculture-specific areas. Attitudes toward uncertainty varied much more widely in the agricultural scenarios than in the general financial areas. You may read more online.
John Deere Enters $99 Million Right-to-Repair Settlement: John Deere has agreed to a massive $99 million class-action antitrust settlement. The agreement resolves allegations that the manufacturer restricted farmers’ access to essential diagnostic software. Class members will receive financial compensation and are guaranteed ten years of unrestricted access to the necessary digital tools to perform independent equipment repairs.
June University of Illinois Field Days and Conferences
Small Grains Field Day June 4: Join the University of Illinois for the Small Grains Field Day on June 4th at 8:30 AM. The event includes a guided tour of research fields, a barbecue, and learning opportunities about wheat and oat research. Search “Illinois Small Grains Field Day” to register.
Weed Science Field Research Tour June 24: The University of Illinois will host the 2026 Weed Science Field Research Tour on June 24th at the Clem Farm in Champaign. The tour will cover herbicide programs, research plots, and new agricultural products. A ten-dollar fee covers the field tour book, refreshments, and a box lunch. Preregistration is not required, but large groups should notify organizers in advance for meal planning. Search “Illinois Weed Science Field Research Day” for more information or contact Aaron Hager at hager@illinois.edu.
Focus on the Future: Sustaining Farm Legacy June 30: The “Focus on the Future: Sustaining Farm Legacy” series, hosted by University of Illinois Extension and Illinois Farm Bureau, helps farmers manage their operations. The next event is June 30th in Sycamore at the DeKalb County Farm Bureau building. Attendees will hear practical updates on succession planning, farm economics, the Farm Bill, and market conditions. Register today go.illinois.edu/farmlegacy.
That is a comprehensive look at the markets, the weather, and the news driving agriculture this week. You can find all of these segments, plus daily market updates from our farmdoc team, online anytime on demand at WILLAg.org.
Editor’s note: This article was adapted from the week’s WILLAg.org radio broadcast transcripts, formatted for print with the assistance of Google’s generative AI tool, Gemini, and reviewed by Todd Gleason.
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Commodity Week can be heard in the 2 o’clock hour central time on WILL AM580 or you may subscribe to it using the links in the player below. This week the panelists include Dave Chatterton with SFarmMarketing.com, Curt Kimmel of AgMarket.net and Collin Watters from the ILCorn.org.
The Closing Market Report airs at 2:06 p.m. central daily on WILL AM580. It, too, is a podcast. Subscribe using the link in the player.